Swing State Polls Are Rigged

Published on DickMorris.com on October 5, 2012

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After Wednesday night’s smashing debate victory for Romney, we may expect the national and swing state polls to change in the Republican’s direction.  But not by as much as they should.  These polls are biased in favor of Obama and here’s the data to prove it:

From noted Republican pollster John McLaughlin comes a clear and convincing exposé of the bias of media polls in the swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.

McLaughlin reviewed exit polls in each state for the past four elections.  From this data about who actually voted, he found that the party divisions manifest on election day have little to do with the samples upon which the media is basing its polling.  And, coincidentally, it is always the Republican vote that tends to be under-counted.

In Florida, for example, McLaughlin finds that the average of the last four elections produced a turnout of 37% Democrats and 38% Republicans.  But here is the partisan distribution of the most recent Florida media polls:

9/26:  CBS/NY Times = 36% Dem / 27% Rep

9/23:  Wash Post = 35% Dem / 29% Rep

So the media polls reflect a 9 point and six point Democratic edge even though the actual experience of the past four elections has been a 1 point Republican advantage.

Things are no better in Ohio.  Here, McLaughlin finds a 2 point Democratic edge in the past four elections (38% Dem, 36% Rep).  But the media polls show vastly more Democrats and fewer Republicans in their samples:

9/26:  CBS/NY Times = 35% Dem / 26% Rep

9/23:  Wash Post = 35% Dem / 27% Rep

9/11:  NBC/Wall St Journal = 38% Dem / 28% Rep

Once again, the actual exit poll-measured vote in Ohio shows a 2 point Democratic edge, but the polls reflect Democratic advantages of 9 points, 8 points, and 10 points respectively.

In Virginia, it’s the same story.  The last four elections have a combined 1 point Republican edge, 37-36.  But the media polls show a big pro-Democratic bias:

10/2:  Roanoke College = Dem 36% / Rep 27%

9/17:  CBS/NYTimes = Dem 35% / Rep 26%

9/16:  Washington Post = Dem 35% / Rep 24%

9/11:  NBC/Wall St Journal = Dem 31% / Rep 26%

So instead of showing a 1 point Republican edge, these media poll samples show Democratic advantages of 9,9,11, and 5.

The correct conclusion to draw from all these polls is that Romney is comfortably ahead in Virginia and Florida while he holds a slight lead in Ohio.  And, remember these polls are all pre-debate!

Also, bear in mind that the undecided vote in all of these polls usually goes against the incumbent.

That’s the real story.

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7 Responses to Swing State Polls Are Rigged

  1. mj says:

    I think the gene that makes a person living on 50k a year vote republican is the same gene that makes people not accept reality. You folks need to adjust your tinfoil hats. Some of the rays from outer space or limbaugh and beck are seeping in again.

  2. cuttnburn says:

    lookie what the mars rover dug up! another progressive life form! the obamabots are fudging other numbers too. in favor of the kenyan! 2012 VOTE FOR THE AMERICAN!!!

    • Robin says:

      I believe you’re right Cuttnburn. Perhaps someone can tell us with any certainty which numbers aren’t being fudged — numbers that actually add up would be real nice.

  3. Concerned Canuck says:

    Never fear Dick, the fearless conservatives have a plan to take back what is rightfully ours! Those wishy-washy liberals think they can sway us with their rigged polls? No way, Jose.

    The clever and honorable Rebulicans are making sure those evil liberals wont even have a chance to vote in swing states. We have hired companies like Strategic Allied Consulting in Florida to pose as a non-partisan voter registration agency, and only register Republicans.

    Those corrupt lefty-lunatics wont be able to vote in this election and ruin OUR democracy!


    Not to worry that the company is under investigation by the Florida Department of Law Enforcement, as you can see the company was working out of Virginia and North Carolina, too.

    I bet we’ve got them up in Ohio, too. Leading by ten points, Obummer? pfffft. More like lagging by .02% at the BALLOT, where is really counts.

    Go team red! We’ve got lots of experience stealing elections in Florida and Ohio. As long as we get both, and maybe Nevada, and Colorado, too, the teleprompter-in-chief can have New Hampshire!

    Just in case your worried we can’t pull this off with our fake-registration companies getting busted, never fear. This gentlemen explains the contract he had for creating vote-rigging machines in Florida:

    He may be a dirty traitor who tattled, but there are plenty of patriots out there who are willing to do what’s right. The liberals have brainwashed the country anyways with their control over the media. It’s only right to shave a little off the top of their votes.

    So, Dick, don’t worry about what the polls are saying. Those left-wing nutjobs wont even know what hit them. (Really, they probably wont).

    • Robin says:

      Yes…well Canuck, your very fine gentleman had suspicious designs of his own…
      “In 2006, Curtis ran a campaign to unseat Republican incumbent Tom Feeney, the former attorney for Yang Enterprises and the person who Curtis had accused, since 2004, of soliciting Curtis to assist in attempted vote fraud in the 2000 election. Was Feeney only kidding? If one solicitation fell through, why not solicit someone else, did he just have a corrupt moment? Was Curtis the only programmer?

      Curtis won the Democratic primary.

      Curtis’ accusations that Feeney solicited him to commit vote fraud played a central role in the campaign, with Curtis challenging Feeney to take a polygraph test to prove that Feeney did not commit vote fraud and Feeney engaging in a campaign to trivialize Curtis, including a website that called Curtis “crazy” and featured photos of Curtis altered to include a tin-foil hat,[2] and a controversial flier with Curtis’s head superimposed on what appeared to be Hugh Hefner’s body.[11] Feeney refused to debate Curtis, arguing that any debate would be a “disservice” to voters.[12]

      On October 26, 2006, The Orlando Sentinel reported on the status of Curtis’s race against Tom Feeney. According to the Sentinel, although both Curtis and Feeney had reported that their internal polling showed them to be leading in the polls, a Zogby poll showed the race to be extremely close, with Feeney leading Curtis by 45 percent to 43 percent, with a 5 percent margin of error.

      The Sentinel reported that “local political observers” attributed the tight race to several factors, including:

      recent Feeney scandals such as his accepting an overseas golf trip from Jack Abramoff;
      the growing influence of non-party-aligned voters;
      Feeney’s strategy of trivializing Curtis rather than confronting him directly; and
      general voter disenchantment with the Republican party.[13]

      Curtis lost the general election, garnering 42 percent to Feeney’s 58 percent of the vote, or 89,863 votes to Feeney’s 123,795.” Excerpt courtesy of Wikipedia – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clint_Curtis

      Canuck, you’re making allegations by posting allegations, this only proves the allegations exist (apparently allegations work in campaign strategy). Among other inconsistencies to Curtis’s testimony, this is Feeney’s valid question, “Curtis accused Feeney of a wide variety of misconduct in his 2004 book, Just A Fly On The Wall, Curtis never mentioned the alleged vote fraud scheme.”

  4. Thevoiceofreason says:

    Reality is that Obama won in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. So maybe, just maybe, the polls weren’t rigged.

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